Back
The study covers the same retail outlets that operated continuously throughout the entire period under review. This approach makes it possible to assess the performance of existing businesses without the impact of newly opened locations.
In the first seven months of 2026, turnover at the retail outlets included in the study reached KZT 8.87 billion, compared with KZT 7.58 billion a year earlier. This represents a 17% increase.
At the same time, the number of transactions declined by 5.1%. The main driver of turnover growth was the average transaction value: customers are making purchases less frequently but spending more per transaction.
The decline in customer activity was particularly pronounced in recent months. In May, the number of transactions fell by 8.2% year on year, followed by a 10.5% decline in June and an 8.2% decline in July.
At the beginning of 2026, the average transaction value was growing particularly rapidly. In January, it was 42% higher than in the same month a year earlier, while in February the increase reached 43%.
Growth then slowed to 26% in March, 21% in April and around 13% in May–June. In July, however, the growth rate accelerated again. The average transaction value reached KZT 10,229, up 20.4% year on year.
Thus, turnover growth is currently being driven by an increase in the amount spent per purchase rather than by an expansion of the customer base.
At the same time as revenue growth, businesses faced a decline in gross margin.
In January 2026, the gross margin of the businesses surveyed was 9.1 percentage points lower than a year earlier. The gap stood at 7 percentage points in February, 3 percentage points in March and 8.5 percentage points in April.
In May, the difference narrowed to 0.9 percentage points, but then began to widen again. It reached 1.1 percentage points in June and 2.7 percentage points in July.
As a result, the gross margin in July stood at 48.6%, compared with 51.3% a year earlier.
Combined with the decline in the number of transactions, this means that businesses are generating a smaller share of gross profit fr om each tenge of turnover, potentially increasing their need for working capital.
Another notable change was the increase in the outflow of retail outlets. In 2025–2026, the rate reached 13.5%, compared with 7.2% a year earlier.
At the same time, analysts do not observe any further sharp acceleration in the outflow. The main increase occurred during the first months following changes to the tax environment.
Beksar notes a temporal link between the events but does not claim that tax changes were the reason for every individual outlet closing. In some cases, the absence of transactions may be associated, for example, with a business switching to a different accounting system.
Against the backdrop of declining customer activity, the market is becoming more concentrated.
The top 20% of retail outlets by size now account for 74% of the total turnover of the cohort under review. Previously, their share was 68%.
Thus, revenue is gradually shifting toward larger market participants, while smaller businesses are simultaneously facing lower traffic and pressure on margins.
At the same time, Beksar’s data does not indicate a systemic operational disruption in the retail SME sector.
The average purchases-to-sales ratio for January–July 2026 remained at 0.60. Historically, the indicator has ranged from 0.49 to 0.81.
This suggests that retail outlets continue to manage their inventories and show no signs of widespread loss-making clearance sales.
Rather, businesses are adapting to changing conditions while simultaneously controlling inventory and expenses.
Beksar separately highlights businesses with monthly turnover of between KZT 2 million and KZT 10 million. They account for 44% of the retail outlets in the study and 23% of their combined turnover.
For these companies, working capital management is becoming particularly important. As margins decline, businesses may not have sufficient internal funds to simultaneously purchase new inventory, cover operating expenses and finance further development.
Additional financing needs may arise from the automation of accounting processes and adaptation to regulatory requirements, including VAT and electronic invoices.
“POS data makes it possible to see what is happening inside a business—something that cannot be assessed based solely on overall turnover. It is especially important now to make decisions based on real operational data rather than formal reporting alone,” said Beksar COO Bauyrzhan Sarsembayev.
The performance of the first seven months of 2026 shows that revenue alone is not sufficient to assess the health of the retail sector.
Within the cohort under review, turnover increased by 17%, while the number of transactions declined by 5.1%, July gross margin fell to 48.6%, and the outflow of retail outlets nearly doubled compared with the previous period.
For now, the increase in the average transaction value is offsetting the decline in the number of purchases. However, continued pressure on margins could lim it businesses’ ability to finance inventory purchases and growth from their own profits.
“We see that retailers’ margins have declined, while customer traffic has virtually stopped growing. Under these conditions, it is becoming more difficult for entrepreneurs to finance inventory purchases and growth from their own profits. This is precisely the challenge that MOST Finance addresses by developing financing solutions that help entrepreneurs replenish working capital on time, maintain operational momentum and continue growing during a period of market adjustment,” said MOST Finance CEO Mirat Akhmetsadykov.
Fewer Shoppers, Higher Revenue: The Paradox of Kazakhstan’s Retail Market
The turnover of Kazakhstan’s small and medium-sized retail businesses increased by 17% in January–July 2026, while the number of transactions declined by 5.1% over the same period, reports Delovoy Kazakhstan. The data was provided by Beksar based on a cohort analysis of POS data for January 2024–July 2026.
The study covers the same retail outlets that operated continuously throughout the entire period under review. This approach makes it possible to assess the performance of existing businesses without the impact of newly opened locations.
Turnover rose to KZT 8.87 billion
In the first seven months of 2026, turnover at the retail outlets included in the study reached KZT 8.87 billion, compared with KZT 7.58 billion a year earlier. This represents a 17% increase.
At the same time, the number of transactions declined by 5.1%. The main driver of turnover growth was the average transaction value: customers are making purchases less frequently but spending more per transaction.
The decline in customer activity was particularly pronounced in recent months. In May, the number of transactions fell by 8.2% year on year, followed by a 10.5% decline in June and an 8.2% decline in July.
Average transaction value exceeds KZT 10,000
At the beginning of 2026, the average transaction value was growing particularly rapidly. In January, it was 42% higher than in the same month a year earlier, while in February the increase reached 43%.
Growth then slowed to 26% in March, 21% in April and around 13% in May–June. In July, however, the growth rate accelerated again. The average transaction value reached KZT 10,229, up 20.4% year on year.
Thus, turnover growth is currently being driven by an increase in the amount spent per purchase rather than by an expansion of the customer base.
Gross margin falls to 48.6%
At the same time as revenue growth, businesses faced a decline in gross margin.
In January 2026, the gross margin of the businesses surveyed was 9.1 percentage points lower than a year earlier. The gap stood at 7 percentage points in February, 3 percentage points in March and 8.5 percentage points in April.
In May, the difference narrowed to 0.9 percentage points, but then began to widen again. It reached 1.1 percentage points in June and 2.7 percentage points in July.
As a result, the gross margin in July stood at 48.6%, compared with 51.3% a year earlier.
Combined with the decline in the number of transactions, this means that businesses are generating a smaller share of gross profit fr om each tenge of turnover, potentially increasing their need for working capital.
Outflow of retail outlets nearly doubles
Another notable change was the increase in the outflow of retail outlets. In 2025–2026, the rate reached 13.5%, compared with 7.2% a year earlier.
At the same time, analysts do not observe any further sharp acceleration in the outflow. The main increase occurred during the first months following changes to the tax environment.
Beksar notes a temporal link between the events but does not claim that tax changes were the reason for every individual outlet closing. In some cases, the absence of transactions may be associated, for example, with a business switching to a different accounting system.
Largest retail outlets account for an increasing share of turnover
Against the backdrop of declining customer activity, the market is becoming more concentrated.
The top 20% of retail outlets by size now account for 74% of the total turnover of the cohort under review. Previously, their share was 68%.
Thus, revenue is gradually shifting toward larger market participants, while smaller businesses are simultaneously facing lower traffic and pressure on margins.
No signs of mass inventory sell-offs
At the same time, Beksar’s data does not indicate a systemic operational disruption in the retail SME sector.
The average purchases-to-sales ratio for January–July 2026 remained at 0.60. Historically, the indicator has ranged from 0.49 to 0.81.
This suggests that retail outlets continue to manage their inventories and show no signs of widespread loss-making clearance sales.
Rather, businesses are adapting to changing conditions while simultaneously controlling inventory and expenses.
Businesses with turnover of KZT 2–10 million remain the most vulnerable
Beksar separately highlights businesses with monthly turnover of between KZT 2 million and KZT 10 million. They account for 44% of the retail outlets in the study and 23% of their combined turnover.
For these companies, working capital management is becoming particularly important. As margins decline, businesses may not have sufficient internal funds to simultaneously purchase new inventory, cover operating expenses and finance further development.
Additional financing needs may arise from the automation of accounting processes and adaptation to regulatory requirements, including VAT and electronic invoices.
“POS data makes it possible to see what is happening inside a business—something that cannot be assessed based solely on overall turnover. It is especially important now to make decisions based on real operational data rather than formal reporting alone,” said Beksar COO Bauyrzhan Sarsembayev.
Turnover growth does not always mean business growth
The performance of the first seven months of 2026 shows that revenue alone is not sufficient to assess the health of the retail sector.
Within the cohort under review, turnover increased by 17%, while the number of transactions declined by 5.1%, July gross margin fell to 48.6%, and the outflow of retail outlets nearly doubled compared with the previous period.
For now, the increase in the average transaction value is offsetting the decline in the number of purchases. However, continued pressure on margins could lim it businesses’ ability to finance inventory purchases and growth from their own profits.
“We see that retailers’ margins have declined, while customer traffic has virtually stopped growing. Under these conditions, it is becoming more difficult for entrepreneurs to finance inventory purchases and growth from their own profits. This is precisely the challenge that MOST Finance addresses by developing financing solutions that help entrepreneurs replenish working capital on time, maintain operational momentum and continue growing during a period of market adjustment,” said MOST Finance CEO Mirat Akhmetsadykov.